The most recent ‘World Threat Assessment’ study from the US Defence Intelligence Agency (DIA) for 2025 offers a thorough examination of the changing security landscape in South Asia, with a special emphasis on the trilateral interaction between China, India, and Pakistan.
According to the research, Pakistan sees India as a “existential threat” and is committed to modernizing its armed forces, including the development of tactical or battlefield nuclear weapons, in order to counter India’s superior conventional military. Cross-border conflicts with neighbors in the area, counterterrorism initiatives, and nuclear modernization continue to be Pakistan’s top military priorities.
The study also emphasizes how foreign suppliers are crucial to Pakistan’s modernization of its nuclear arsenal, with China serving as the main source of both military and economic support. A large portion of the technology and material for Pakistan’s weapons of mass destruction programs are thought to have been obtained from China, occasionally transferred through third countries like Hong Kong, Singapore, Turkey, and the United Arab Emirates. Pakistani forces also regularly engage in joint military exercises with the Chinese People’s Liberation Army.
In contrast, despite previous military conflicts and sporadic cross-border assaults, India today views China as its main enemy and Pakistan as an auxiliary security concern that must be handled. According to the DIA, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s defense goals are probably going to center on strengthening India’s military might, opposing China, and showcasing his leadership in the world. New Delhi’s readiness to react aggressively to provocations is demonstrated by India’s recent actions, such as Operation Sindoor, which involved targeted airstrikes against terrorist facilities in Pakistan, but the
China’s issue continues to be the larger strategic emphasis. In an effort to offset Chinese influence and improve its status internationally, India is also giving top priority to building defense alliances in the Indo-Pacific and Indian Ocean regions. As part of this, bilateral, trilateral, and quadrilateral defense alliances are being advanced, and the ‘Made in India’ campaign is being used to support local defense manufacture.
The paper goes on to describe the nuclear balance in the area, pointing out that Pakistan and India each have around 170 nuclear weapons. In response to India’s conventional dominance, Pakistan often displays its short-range Nasr (Hatf-IX) and other missiles.
China’s nuclear arsenal, on the other hand, has grown dramatically; estimates indicate that it already has more than 600 operable warheads and will have more than 1,000 by 2030, many of which are at higher readiness levels.
The region’s instability is exemplified by recent military events, such as the Indian strikes on Pakistani airbases in May 2025 and the escalation that followed. The paper does, however, highlight how China’s danger is rapidly taking center stage in India’s strategic thinking, with Pakistan being seen as a recurring but secondary security issue. The security situation in South Asia is still shaped by the three nations’ continuous military modernization initiatives, ingrained mistrust, and the possibility of quick escalation, particularly along the India-China Line of Actual Control.
India’s strategic priorities have changed significantly, according to the US intelligence assessment. While Islamabad continues to modernize its military with significant Chinese support and maintains a posture of existential deterrence against New Delhi, Pakistan is now viewed as an ancillary security issue and China as India’s primary rival.
