Due to a combination of defense, energy, and geopolitical factors that bind Moscow’s interests tightly to New Delhi while also limiting Riyadh, Russia would probably take action to keep Saudi Arabia from directly facing India in a fight against Pakistan.
With more than 60% of its defense inventory coming from Russian suppliers, India continues to be one of Russia’s most significant strategic allies. New Delhi is seen by Moscow as the mainstay of its South.
Asian policy. Permitting Saudi action against India would be a betrayal of decades of confidence and would put Russia’s long-standing position as India’s main military supplier in jeopardy.
India continues to rely significantly on Russian-origin systems, such as SSN/SSK submarine designs, Su-30MKI fighters, and S-400 air defenses, while diversifying its defense imports.
Moscow has the leverage to make sure it has a say in issues affecting Indian security since it has access to upgrades, spare parts, and next-generation equipment. Russia would prevent outside parties, such as Saudi Arabia, from upsetting the military balance by using this leverage.
Through OPEC+, Saudi Arabia and Russia collaborate to shape the world’s oil markets. Stabilized production agreements benefit both states. An intensifying Saudi action against India would cause instability in the larger energy markets, which would hurt Russia’s oil earnings indirectly at a time when Moscow cannot afford instability. Moscow is therefore directly motivated by economic interests to hold Riyadh accountable.
New Delhi might be pressured to forge even stronger defense and intelligence cooperation with the US if Saudi Arabia were to attack India. Such a change would be viewed as strategically destabilizing by Russia, which is already leery of American hegemony in Asian geopolitics. Moscow is expected to put Saudi officials under firm but quiet pressure because of this risk alone.
Although Russia has cautiously pursued limited defense and energy cooperation with Pakistan in recent years, its larger strategic and economic connection with India still takes precedence over these actions. A Saudi-led campaign against India would upset the balance that Moscow aims to maintain in its interactions with South Asia. Russia would rather maintain its neutrality and stop Saudi Arabia from compromising its delicate balance in South Asia.
India is viewed as a crucial independent pole in the multipolar world order that Russia supports. That narrative would be disrupted by a Saudi military conflict with India, which would pull South Asia into unstable alliances that benefit Western—especially US—interests. Russia would try to restrain Saudi Arabia’s military aspirations in order to maintain its multipolar vision.
Moscow would use quiet diplomacy, use its position in international forums, energy cooperation, and global arms markets, instead of directly challenging Riyadh. Russia has the ability to subtly deter aggressive action without threatening the public thanks to its influence over Saudi Arabia’s military modernization and its alliance with OPEC+.
