Pakistan is aggressively working on developing a nuclear-armed intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) that could reach the continental United States, according to several reports and recent intelligence assessments. This represents a dramatic change from Pakistan’s historically India-focused nuclear strategy and has caused Washington and international security analysts to express grave worries.
Pakistan has always said that its ballistic missile program and nuclear weapons are only intended to serve as a deterrent to India, which has the region’s most powerful conventional military. Up until now, Pakistan has focused its missile development efforts on short- and medium-range missiles, such the Shaheen-III, which can cover much of India with a range of roughly 2,700 km, but not intercontinental lengths.
However, Pakistan’s military aspirations have grown in the wake of increased tensions with India, especially after the Indian military’s Operation Sindoor in May 2025, according to recent US intelligence quoted by Foreign Affairs. The new emphasis is on creating an ICBM, a missile system that can carry nuclear warheads to targets across continents, including the US, and has a range of more than 5,500 kilometers.
US intelligence agencies believe that the pursuit of ICBM capability is also meant to deter potential American intervention—either in the form of a preventive strike against Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal or involvement on India’s behalf in a future conflict—despite Islamabad’s continued public claims that its nuclear program is meant to deter India. The reasoning behind other nuclear powers’ development of long-range deterrent weapons is reflected in this strategic calculation.
In Washington, the possibility of an ICBM from Pakistan has raised concerns. US officials have stated unequivocally that the US would be forced to treat Pakistan as a nuclear adversary if it were to obtain an ICBM that could be used to strike American territory. Washington has historically viewed no nation possessing ICBMs capable of reaching the US as a strategic ally. Due to this development, US policy toward Pakistan would need to be significantly revised, which might lead to more sanctions and diplomatic isolation.
Citing efforts to get pertinent technology and supplies, frequently with alleged Chinese aid, the US has already placed restrictions on a number of Pakistani organizations engaged in the development of long-range missiles. Assets are frozen and US businesses are forbidden from doing business with the designated groups as a result of these sanctions.
Pakistan would become one of just a few countries with the ability to produce and launch an ICBM, along with the US, Russia, China, France, the UK, India, Israel, and North Korea. In addition to shifting the strategic balance in South Asia, this would add a new element to the dynamics of global nuclear deterrence, particularly given the growing threats that the US is already facing from China, North Korea, Iran, and Russia.
The potential for these nuclear-armed nations to coordinate or align strategically adds to the complexity of the global security landscape and raises the threat of a more unstable and fractured global order.
In response to India’s nuclear aspirations, Pakistan launched its nuclear weapons program in the early 1970s. The nation is thought to have between 165 and 170 nuclear warheads, and it carried out its first nuclear tests in 1998. Pakistan has demonstrated its determination to retaining complete sovereignty over its nuclear policy by refusing to sign the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) and the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).
In conclusion, reliable reports and US intelligence evaluations show that Pakistan is making substantial progress in its strategic doctrine by creating an ICBM with nuclear capability that might reach the United States.
Washington, which has indicated that such a step would compel the US to treat Pakistan as a nuclear foe, is extremely concerned about this development. It would have a significant impact on both bilateral ties and international security. The situation is still unstable, and as Pakistan’s ICBM program develops, more escalation or policy reactions from the US and its allies are probably in store.
