A high-level committee has been established by the Ministry of Defence (MoD) to solve the Indian Air Force’s (IAF) deficiencies. With the squadron strength falling to an all-time low of 30 compared to the authorized number of 42, the IAF has been struggling with a fighter aircraft shortfall for a while. Senior ministry officials, Samir V. Kamat, the chairman of the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO), and senior IAF officers would be on the committee led by the Defence Secretary.
In light of the escalating security threats from China, Pakistan, and Bangladesh, it will examine the lack of fighter jets, weapons, and other equipment and offer remedies, such as boosting domestic manufacturing and carefully seeking out foreign partnerships. In two to three months, the report should be ready.
In the meantime, Pakistan intends to purchase 40 J-35 stealth fighters from China, which would be the first time Beijing has sold its fifth-generation aircraft to a foreign partner. It might indicate induction by 2029. That will alter the subcontinent’s whole air dominance dynamics. Concerns over regional security are heightened by China’s possible supply of fighter fighters to Bangladesh.
As early as 2001, it was predicted that the IAF will soon have a shortage of fighter aircraft. A case had been started for 126 aircraft. The IAF would have been delighted to purchase more Mirage-2000 aircraft with improved specifications, which could have been produced in India for the global market. In 2006, the French presented the Rafale and eventually shut down the Mirage-2000 manufacturing. In 2008, the Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft (MMRCA) final selection process began. Out of the six competitors, the Rafale emerged victorious in 2012. However, Dassault and Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) had complicated Make in India issues. Finally, in a government-to-government (G2G) transaction, only 36 were purchased off-the-shelf. Following the introduction of the Su-30MKI in the early 2000s, 36
The first flight of the TEJAS MK-1 took place in 2001. In 2015, it was officially admitted to the IAF. Only two squadrons remain in the IAF 24 years after the maiden flight. One year has already passed since the TEJAS MK-1A was supposed to start inducting in March 2024. The MiG-21 fleet had to be extended by the IAF until 2025. India is actually among the last countries to use this kind of system.
With capabilities closer to those of the Rafale, the HAL TEJAS MK-2 Medium Weight Fighter (MWF) is expected to be introduced by 2025 and make its first flight in 2026. In 2029, mass manufacturing is anticipated. Once more, given our reliance on foreign subsystems, these are incredibly optimistic numbers.
Additionally, India is the sole operator of Jaguar aircraft, which we might keep flying for next eight to ten years. According to India’s security establishment, 30 squadrons is a dangerously low number for the threat assessment.
In October 2010, the feasibility study for the DRDO-HAL Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA) was initiated. The AMCA’s basic design configuration was completed in 2015, and the IAF approved it in 2016. In 2023, the design work was finished, and in March 2024, the ₹15,000 crore ($1.8 billion) project for prototype development was approved. In late 2028, the first flight is anticipated. By 2035, the aircraft and induction are expected to begin mass production. The aforementioned dates appear extremely optimistic based on the TEJAS experience, and delays should be anticipated and taken into account.
India had three times as many fighters as Pakistan in 2001. It’s almost 1.6:1 presently. China outnumbers the IAF by a ratio of 3:1. The majority of analysts estimate that the IAF needs about 50 fighter squadrons in light of the three front threats.
Some immediate action is needed to make amends for the 42 squadrons initially. By 2029, all 83 of the ordered TEJAS MK-1A were supposed to arrive. Now, around 24 airplanes must be manufactured annually to make that happen. We are still only producing, at most, 12 TEJAS annually. Consequently, even the suggested third line at Nasik won’t be enough. There are plans to order an additional 97 TEJAS MK-1A. Furthermore, production needs to increase rapidly to 24 aircraft annually. supply chain problems for
The development of TEJAS MK-2 needs to be accelerated. At this point, HAL should ideally locate a private partner capable of supporting both production and basic design work. With AMCA, the similar arrangement is anticipated. The partner has to be chosen fast.
Turkey and Pakistan are collaborating closely on the TAI “Kaan,” a fifth-generation fighter. Additionally, they are negotiating the purchase of 40 J-35A fifth-generation fighters with China. If a financially struggling Pakistan were to introduce fifth-generation fighters before India, it would be unsuitable for the nation with the fourth-largest military and soon-to-be third-largest economy.
India needs to produce top-tier fighter aircraft, like China has been doing for a while, if it wants to be seated at the global high table. For the design and development of fighter aircraft, a national task force must be established. The PMO must get direct reports from the task force.
Last but not least, the idea of purchasing 114 fighters made in India once must be promoted. These won’t be introduced for another five to six years, even if they are ordered now. It should be a G2G deal to save time. It should ideally be the most recent Rafale F4 model. In addition to airfield infrastructure, India has already covered the cost of IAF-specific improvements. Rafales are already up and running, and the induction process will be the quickest. The French are also seasoned partners.
Three large (IL-76-based) and three small (DRDO Netra) airborne early warning and control (AEW&C) systems are woefully insufficient for a country the size of India. India has less AEW&C than even Pakistan. India has made the decision to use used aircraft to create six more Netras and six larger ones (Netra 2). Likewise, there are just six flight refueling planes in India. Using already owned aircraft, six more are being developed domestically. It will take about six years to complete these two tasks. Timelines must be condensed. Additionally, another six of each of the two categories will need to be planned for.
The significance of uncrewed aerial systems (UAS) and smaller drones has been brought to light by recent conflicts. China is currently one of the UAS leaders. In addition to purchasing Chinese Wing Loong II UAS, Pakistan is also licensed to manufacture them. Another supply stream for drones and UAS is made possible by Pakistan’s strong ties to Turkey. India is aware of the criteria.
The medium-altitude long-endurance (MALE) DRDO TAPAS-BH-201 has been in development for a long time. India was compelled to purchase 31 General Atomics MQ-9B armed High Altitude Long Endurance (HALE) unmanned aerial vehicles (UCAVs) at a cost of around $3.5 billion. The deliveries are scheduled to take place between January 2029 and September 2030.
There are more than 100 drone start-ups in India. The Hermes 450 and 900 UAS versions are being produced in India by Adani Group in a joint venture with Elbit of Israel. India is capable. We must harness these. Currently, a lot of drone parts are imported. The components can be produced in India if production and orders are coordinated.
The requirement for precise and long-range contemporary aircraft weaponry has been brought to light by recent conflicts. Modern air defense systems prevented even a more powerful nation like Russia from having air superiority. China is already producing top-notch aerial missiles, some of which can travel up to 3,400 kilometers. India has achieved success with air-to-surface missiles (BrahMos), aerial missiles (Astra), and AD systems (Akash). It is necessary to promote the creation of more sophisticated varieties.
The second is supply chain security and the stocking of weaponry and kamikaze drones. Becoming atmanirbhar on both of them is crucial. In the meanwhile, India needs to diversify its sources.
The development of the aero-engine is still another weakness. India is negotiating the construction of an aero-engine with Indian intellectual property rights (IPR) with Safran, Rolls-Royce, and other companies. This is a crucial move that India needs to take as soon as possible. Additionally, the technology must be thoroughly explained in the ToT talks for the GE-414 engine that will be constructed in India. It shouldn’t become a production contract with another license.
India and Israeli firms have successfully entered into joint ventures (JVs) for missiles and radars. A successful joint venture with more promise for the future is BrahMos with Russia. A joint venture between Russia and India is producing AK-203 rifles. Through a joint venture with the Tata Group, CASA-295W is being constructed. Because both parties have an interest in both risks and rewards, the joint venture approach is preferable to licensed production. Just last year, 45 defense-related businesses and joint ventures with international Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) received approval from the government. They could be pushed.
India’s private defense industry is currently expanding. Numerous sizable corporations are in defense, including TATA, Adani, Mahindra, and Bharat Forge, among many others. They manufacture top-notch equipment, including the aerostructures of premium aircraft, for clients throughout the world. Additionally, DRDO and Defense PSUs need to establish more joint ventures with the Indian commercial sector. There are a lot of private drone companies. They require more assistance.
India may need to make some difficult short-term decisions as it vigorously promotes its Made in India initiatives. It will probably take some time for India to deliver its Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA). India would want to think about purchasing two to three squadrons of temporary fifth-generation aircraft. There are two options: convince the US to provide the F-35 or join the Russians on the Sukhoi Su-57. Purchasing twelve to fifteen bombers is another idea. The Tu-160M strategic bombers, which Russia is said to have provided, could significantly increase the IAF’s aerial capabilities.
At the moment, India is caught between two extremes of a vice. Decisions have to be made fast. The high-level MoD group is expected to produce sound recommendations.
