Following India’s suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty and the closure of the gates of the Baglihar and Salal dams, Pakistan has reported a sharp decline in the flow of water in the Chenab River. Pakistan is significantly dependent on the Indus river system for its water demands, therefore the scenario has raised serious concerns there, especially among agricultural and irrigation officials.
Up to 35,000 cusecs of water flow were measured on Sunday at the Chenab River’s Marala headworks. The river’s flow into Pakistan was almost entirely blocked by Monday morning, when this had fallen to about 3,100 cusecs. Pakistani authorities attested that India’s decision to limit water flows after the pact was suspended was the direct cause of this abrupt and drastic cut.
Images demonstrating all gates closed and the Chenab’s water levels falling to record lows provided visual confirmation that the Baglihar and Salal dams in Jammu and Kashmir had been closed. According to local reports from the area, the river, which had previously flowed at a height of 25 to 30 feet, now only reached 1.5 to 2 feet, allowing locals to cross the riverbank for the first time in their memories in some places.
For more than 60 years, India and Pakistan have shared the Indus river system under the terms of the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty, which was mediated by the World Bank. According to the treaty, India kept control over the eastern rivers (Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej) but had only restricted authority to utilize the western rivers for certain reasons. Pakistan was given the majority of the water from the western rivers (Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab).
Following a terrible terror assault in Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir, on April 22, which claimed the lives of 26 people, primarily tourists, India has decided to put the pact on hold. India responded by taking more drastic diplomatic and strategic actions, such as suspending the pact, after attributing the attack to terrorists based in Pakistan.
It is anticipated that Pakistan’s agriculture would suffer greatly as a result of these efforts. With a 21% water deficit predicted for the early Kharif season—a crucial time for crop sowing—the advisory committee of the Indus River System Authority (IRSA) voiced serious concerns. With late Kharif shortfalls estimated at about 7%, the committee cautioned that the deficit might grow much more if the Chenab’s decreased flows continue. The Chenab is essential for irrigating large areas of farmland in Pakistan’s Punjab state, therefore the lack is especially concerning.
The timing and scope of the closures have been generally perceived as a direct reaction to the recent increase in bilateral tensions, despite Indian officials’ claims that the reduction of water flows is a normal component of dam maintenance, such as flushing and desillting.
Strong support for the government’s actions has been expressed by local Indians, who have called for an end to water supplies to Pakistan and expressed unity with the Indian military and leadership.
With immediate and perhaps escalating effects on Pakistan’s agricultural and food security, the sudden suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty and the closing of important dams have caused a serious water crisis. Pakistani authorities are keeping a close eye on water levels every day and are cautioning that further cuts might make the situation worse.
