Long-held beliefs regarding nuclear deterrence in South Asia have been called into question by India’s Operation Sindoor, which has drastically changed the nuclear equilibrium between India and Pakistan. In addition to proving India’s will to combat cross-border terrorism, India’s historic military attacks against Pakistani targets have raised serious concerns regarding the security and management of Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal.
Significant concerns regarding nuclear security in the region have been generated by reports of suspected strikes close to Pakistan’s Kirana Hills nuclear site and the subsequent deployment of specialized radiation monitoring planes, despite official denials from both nations. The complicated fallout from Operation Sindoor is examined in this paper, with particular attention paid to the heightened international scrutiny of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons program and its possible effects on regional security and stability.
One of the biggest military conflicts involving neighbors with nuclear weapons since the end of the Cold War is Operation Sindoor. On May 7, 2025, India responded to a terror incident in Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir, in April that murdered 26 civilians by launching synchronized precision attacks against Pakistani targets. Because it is the first time a nuclear state has carried out such widespread conventional strikes against another nuclear power without inciting nuclear escalation, this operation is historically noteworthy.
In addition to other military locations throughout Pakistan and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir, the operation involved attacks against the airbases in Sargodha and Nur Khan. Indian officials said these strikes destroyed airfields, radar systems, and communication facilities. The magnitude and profundity of these attacks reveal India’s calculated risk that Pakistan’s nuclear threshold was higher than previously thought. In his first statement following Operation Sindoor, Prime Minister Narendra Modi made it clear that India’s approach to terrorism has permanently altered, warning Pakistani terrorists and those who support them that India would launch another attack to defend its people and territory.
Indian strategic planners appear to have gained significant confidence in their capacity to handle the nuclear aspect of the fight, as seen by their readiness to launch deep attacks into Pakistani territory in spite of the possibility of a nuclear exchange. India’s reaction to cross-border terrorism has been marked by strategic caution for decades since both nations were designated nuclear powers, but this represents a dramatic shift from that approach.
The 80-kilometer-long Kirana Hills, also known as the Black Mountains, are situated in Pakistan’s Sargodha region, some 170 kilometers from the Indian border. It has long been believed that Pakistan’s nuclear weapons program depends primarily on this isolated, strongly protected area. After being taken over by Pakistan’s defense ministry in the 1970s, Kirana Hills is now a part of the Mushaf airbase, which is home to Pakistani aircraft such as F-16s and JF-17s.
According to academic studies and intelligence assessments, Pakistan started utilizing Kirana Hills for its nuclear purpose in 1978 or 1979. Pakistan developed its nuclear program between 1983 and 1990 in Kirana Hills, a subcritical nuclear test site, according to a 2023 study published by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. Pakistan allegedly carried out a number of “cold tests” or subcritical nuclear tests at the location at this time, simulating nuclear explosions without setting off fission reactions. In order to improve its nuclear weapon designs without needing sizable underground test sites, Pakistan needed to conduct these tests.
Beyond its historical significance in Pakistan’s nuclear program, Kirana Hills are strategically significant. At least eleven underground storage facilities, munitions storage sites, and Transporter Erector Launcher (TEL) garages are thought to be located on the property. Its close closeness to important military facilities, such as the Khushab nuclear complex (about 75 km away) and the Sargodha Air Base (about 20 km away), highlights how delicate Pakistan’s defense system is.
Speculation of a possible nuclear radiation leak from Pakistan’s Kirana Hills region erupted on social media and in international media outlets after India’s precision strikes. Unverified reports that Indian airstrikes had targeted this sensitive area, perhaps endangering nuclear storage facilities, heightened these worries. Despite official denials from both India and Pakistan that Kirana Hills was the objective of Operation Sindoor, a number of circumstances made the rumors persistent.
Speculation was stoked by an unintentional remark made by Air Marshal AK Bharti, the Indian Air Force’s Director General of Air Operations. “Thank you for informing us that Kirana Hills contains nuclear installations,” he said sarcastically when asked if India had hit Kirana Hills during a press briefing. We were unaware of it. Whatever is there, we haven’t reached Kirana Hills. Although officially a denial, this imprecise comment caused worldwide onlookers to take notice.
The reported use of a specialized US radiation monitoring aircraft over the area added to the curiosity. According to reports, a Beechcraft B350 Aerial Measuring System (AMS) aircraft with tail registration N111SZ was briefly detected in Pakistani airspace using flight monitoring data from websites such as Flightradar24. The US Department of Energy has a fleet of aircraft like this one that are specifically built to detect radioactive pollution in emergency situations. It is rarely used overseas and usually needs a specific goal and diplomatic approval.
The B350 AMS can analyze the spread of radioactive materials during low-altitude, slow-speed flights thanks to its powerful mapping tools, real-time data transmission capabilities, and sophisticated gamma ray sensors. Its apparent presence in Pakistan was especially remarkable because of its previous use in major nuclear incidents, such as the Fukushima accident, and for post-blast monitoring during US nuclear testing.
According to some open-source intelligence experts, the disputed aircraft was actually moved to Pakistan’s Army Aviation in 2010. Two options were raised by this revelation: either Pakistan, fearing radiation exposure, sent out its own (formerly US) nuclear reaction aircraft, or the US coordinated the deployment of the aircraft to evaluate any nuclear damage. Concern over potential nuclear contamination was implied by both scenarios.
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) confirmed in a definitive statement on May 15, 2025, that no radioactive leak or discharge had taken place from any nuclear facility in Pakistan, amidst mounting international alarm. In a statement released in response to questions, an IAEA official stated, “Based on information available to the IAEA, there has been no radiation leak or release from any nuclear facility in Pakistan.” Some of the more concerning rumors were quelled by this official statement from the international nuclear watchdog.
Both India and Pakistan maintained consistent official positions denying any strikes on nuclear facilities. Indian Air Marshal AK Bharti explicitly stated, “We have not hit Kirana Hills, whatever is there”. Similarly, Pakistan’s Director General of Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR), Sharif Ahmed Chaudhary, dismissed claims that Pakistan’s nuclear establishments had been targeted by India.
Notwithstanding these official explanations, the conjecture around Operation Sindoor’s possible nuclear ramifications brought to light the dangers that come with regular military operations between nuclear-armed nations. Even if both sides deny that the conflict has a nuclear component, the international community’s quick response—which includes the apparent deployment of specialized radiation monitoring capabilities—underlines how seriously such concerns are treated.
India’s unambiguous rejection of what it views as Pakistan’s nuclear blackmail policy has been a major result of Operation Sindoor. Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal has long been seen as a shield that allows it to support cross-border terrorists without worrying about serious Indian reprisals. With Indian leaders making it apparent that Pakistan’s nuclear position would no longer limit India’s ability to combat terrorism, Operation Sindoor seems to have seriously called into question this presumption.
In a scathing statement after the operation, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said that India would not accept Pakistan’s “nuclear blackmail” and would keep enforcing strict penalties for cross-border terrorism. This assertion represents a significant change in India’s strategic thinking, implying that the conventional moderation used in reaction to terrorist provocations might no longer be appropriate. Modi added that the only reason India would hold discussions with Pakistan over Kashmir would be to dismantle terrorist facilities there and make arrangements for the return of illegally held Kashmir.
India may feel more confident that it has successfully called Pakistan’s nuclear bluff if Operation Sindoor is successful in accomplishing its military goals without escalating into a nuclear conflict. This would significantly change South Asia’s strategic equation and lessen Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal’s ability to exert pressure in future conflicts.
Operation Sindoor’s aftermath has sparked fresh international scrutiny of Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal and brought up important issues about South Asian nuclear deterrence. The incident has brought attention to the inherent risks of conventional military operations between nuclear-armed states, even though both nations have formally denied rumors of strikes on Pakistan’s Kirana Hills nuclear facility and the IAEA has confirmed there were no radiation leaks.
The apparent ability of India to carry out large-scale strikes without resorting to nuclear escalation has given its leadership the confidence to openly denounce what it views as Pakistan’s nuclear blackmail tactic.
Even though his unprecedented demand for IAEA oversight of Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal is practically impossible and politically inflammatory, Defence Minister Rajnath Singh’s action shows India’s increasing confidence in questioning the strategic status quo.
The international community needs to be attentive about the possibility of miscalculation or escalation in future crises as both nations adapt to this new reality. Persistent worries about nuclear security in the region are highlighted by the long-rumored existence of US backup plans to safeguard Pakistan’s nuclear weapons in dire situations. Even if there is now a truce after Operation Sindoor, the nuclear aspect of India-Pakistan ties is still a major security worry for the region and the world.
