India has been able to exert some degree of control over the western rivers and the water flow to Pakistan by suspending the pact in punishment for the Pahalgam attack.
Pakistan is experiencing a serious water shortage as a result of India’s suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) following the Pahalgam terror assault in April 2025. This has a particular impact on Punjab province and the planting of Kharif crops.
The 1960 IWT, which assigns the eastern rivers (Sutlej, Beas, and Ravi) to India and the western rivers (Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab) to Pakistan, regulates how water from six rivers is shared between the two nations. Water-sharing cannot coexist with cross-border terrorism, according to Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s administration, which justified India’s decision to revoke the deal as a form of retaliation.
Pakistan has recorded a 13.3% annual shortfall in water pulled from the Indus River System as a direct result of the stoppage; on June 5, 2025, only 124,500 cusecs were given to dams, compared to approximately 144,000 cusecs the year before.
This deficiency is especially severe in the early Kharif season, causing a water deficit of around 21% that jeopardizes Punjab’s timely sowing and monsoonal crop yield. A severe heat wave, postponed monsoon rains, and dangerously low reservoir levels at significant dams like Tarbela and Mangla are all contributing factors to the crisis.
In addition to suspending the IWT, India has stopped exchanging critical flood data, raising Pakistan’s vulnerability to unexpected flooding during the monsoon season. Without access to upstream water-level data, experts caution that Pakistan may suffer catastrophes if river levels unexpectedly rise during periods of intense precipitation. Due to the circumstances, Pakistan’s Ministry of Water Resources has sent four formal petitions to India for the treaty’s reinstatement; nevertheless, New Delhi has turned them down.
The wider ramifications are dire: Pakistan relies heavily on the Indus River system to sustain the livelihoods of most of its citizens and supply water for 90% of its crops. Pakistan’s food security, hydropower production, and agricultural productivity are all at risk due to the treaty’s pending status. The issue has also increased the likelihood of further escalation between the two nuclear-armed neighbors and heightened political tensions within Pakistan.
A major reduction in water flow to Pakistan as a result of India’s suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty has exacerbated diplomatic tensions between the two nations and caused an agricultural and humanitarian crisis, particularly in Punjab province.
