The geopolitical landscape of South Asia has shifted dramatically in 2025, with President Donald Trump’s administration becoming increasingly antagonistic to India while wooing Pakistan as a key partner.
This fundamental shift in US foreign policy, combined with rising tensions over trade disputes and mediation claims, provides compelling reasons for Prime Minister Narendra Modi to reconsider India’s defense partnerships, particularly the pending General Electric engine deal, and shift toward closer cooperation with France’s SAFRAN.
Multiple policy decisions and diplomatic measures have made it clear that US-India relations are deteriorating during Trump’s second term. The Trump administration has drastically decreased National Security Council staffing from over 300 under Biden to maybe only 50, dismissing dozens of staff people dealing with geopolitical matters, particularly those related to India. This restructure has transferred policymaking to transactional players such as trade advisor Robert Lighthizer, whose emphasis on tariffs trumps strategic objectives.
The most visible evidence of this antagonism was Trump’s imposition of reciprocal tariffs, in which India faces a baseline 10% levy on all exports, with an extra 27% country-specific tariff temporarily deferred for 90 days. Trump has threatened Apple with a 25% tariff if it sells India-assembled iPhones in the United States, undermining attempts to boost US-India economic cooperation and manufacturing collaborations. These initiatives contradict the previously announced “Mission 500” strategy, which aimed to double bilateral trade to $500 billion by 2030.
Perhaps most troubling is the lack of high-profile diplomatic representation, with the US Ambassador’s seat in India being vacant as of May 2025, eroding India’s image as a “major defence partner” and hampering cooperation on vital matters such as defense technology transfers. Paul Kapur, nominated as Assistant Secretary of State for South Asian Affairs, has not been confirmed, leaving a large void in diplomatic representation.
In stark contrast to his attitude of India, Trump has raised Pakistan to new heights of engagement and strategic relevance. The most historic gesture occurred when Trump welcomed Pakistan Army Chief Asim Munir to lunch at the White House, marking the first time in the 78-year history of Pakistan-US relations that a US President has invited and met with a Pakistani Army Chief. The discussion, originally scheduled for one hour, lasted two hours and took place in both the Cabinet Room and the Oval Office.
Trump expressed “keen interest in forging a mutually beneficial trade partnership with Pakistan based on long-term strategic convergence and shared interests” during this historic engagement. The discussions focused on expanding bilateral collaboration in a variety of areas, including trade, economic development, mining and minerals, artificial intelligence, energy, cryptocurrencies, and emerging technologies. Trump applauded Pakistan’s continuous efforts to promote regional peace and stability, as well as the two countries’ strong counterterrorism collaboration.
Most notably, Trump officially thanked Pakistan’s military leadership with facilitating the cease-fire with India, saying, “I was honored to meet him (Munir) today. I invited him to say thank you for not going to war. He deserves credit for helping to secure the truce.” This endorsement came despite India’s unequivocal rejection of any mediation role in conflict settlement by the United States.
Trump’s repeated assertions of negotiating the India-Pakistan ceasefire have sparked serious diplomatic tensions and violated India’s established red lines. Trump has made around 14 public declarations claiming credit for brokering a truce between India and Pakistan following their May 2025 confrontation. These allegations directly violate India’s core position that such disputes are bilateral and do not require third-party mediation.
During a pivotal 35-minute phone discussion on June 17, 2025, Prime Minister Modi clearly stressed to Trump that “India has never accepted mediation, does not accept it, and will never do so in the future”. Modi specifically maintained that there was no talk at any level regarding an India-US trade agreement or a proposal for American mediation between India and Pakistan throughout the events. The decision to suspend military operations was made directly between India and Pakistan using existing military-to-military communication channels, which were opened at Pakistan’s request.
Despite Modi’s unambiguous denial, Trump continued to take responsibility for ending the conflict, telling reporters, “I halted a war between Pakistan and India. I love Pakistan” and “They were fighting – and they’re both nuclear powers. “I got it stopped.” This ongoing disdain for India’s diplomatic position constitutes a fundamental breach of mutual respect and understanding.
The prospective General Electric F414 engine agreement, worth roughly $1.5 billion for 99 engines and 80% knowledge transfer, has been delayed and complicated by the Trump administration. While conversations have been ongoing since 2012, the present geopolitical situation has created new uncertainty about export controls and technology transfer permits.
Trump’s harsher export curbs on semiconductor manufacturing equipment have already hampered India’s ambition of self-reliance in technological products. The delay in sanctioning GE’s jet engine deal with HAL demonstrates a mismatch between talk about supply chain diversification and actual pledges. Despite commercial agreements being nearly completed, the fragile character of US-India ties under Trump raises concerns about the long-term profitability and strategic logic of further reliance on American defense technologies.
The F414 engines are essential for powering India’s indigenous Light Combat Aircraft (LCA) Mk2 and fifth-generation Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA). However, given the current political climate, future technology transfers and strategic collaboration may face more constraints and conditional permits based on broader geopolitical reasons rather than the benefits of bilateral defense partnerships.
France’s SAFRAN emerges as a viable alternative that provides major strategic and technological benefits over prolonged reliance on American defense technologies. SAFRAN has showed an unprecedented commitment to knowledge transfer, with Ambassador Jawed Ashraf affirming that “Safran has expressed its commitment to a 100% technology transfer, covering design development, certification, and production phases”. This degree of commitment much exceeds the GE deal’s 80% technology transfer.
The collaboration between SAFRAN and Hindustan Aeronautics Limited goes beyond basic purchase to a genuine partnership in advanced engine development. The businesses have signed agreements to design, develop, and produce high-thrust engines (110 kN and higher) for future aircraft programs, directly supporting India’s AMCA program requirements. SAFRAN’s expertise in sophisticated engine technology, such as variable-cycle engines, thermal management systems, single-crystal turbine blades, and advanced cooling systems, makes it a perfect partner for India’s sixth-generation fighter program.
Recent advancements have greatly enhanced this alliance. HAL and SAFRAN have signed an agreement to jointly manufacture forged rotating parts for the LEAP engine program, with HAL creating high-performance Inconel components at its Ring Rolling facility in Bengaluru. This partnership enhances near-net Ring Forging technology, which is critical for producing aerospace-grade components that require high precision, strength, and heat resistance.
The France-India strategic relationship, established in 1998 as India’s first strategic alliance, represents a fundamentally different paradigm than the increasingly transactional US approach. President Macron and Prime Minister Modi have consistently demonstrated mutual respect and strategic alignment, most recently launching the “Horizon 2047” roadmap, which outlines a comprehensive framework for cooperation in defense, space, civil nuclear energy, renewable resources, and emerging technologies.
Unlike the US method of imposing requirements and restrictions, France offers government-to-government agreements with significant local production benefits, making it a preferred defense partner. France’s continuous involvement in the Scorpene submarine program, which has resulted in the successful construction of six submarines in India, as well as the integration of DRDO-developed Air Independent Propulsion systems, underlines its commitment to true technology transfer and local production.
Recent high-level engagements have strengthened this connection. During Modi’s February 2025 visit to France, both presidents praised ongoing conversations over missiles, helicopter engines, and jet engines, emphasizing the outstanding cooperation between SAFRAN group entities and their Indian counterparts. The joint exercise Shakti-2025, which is now taking place in France, demonstrates the two countries’ close military collaboration and interoperability.
Given the full understanding of present geopolitical circumstances, India should seriously consider canceling or significantly altering the GE engine purchase in favor of a greater relationship with SAFRAN. The French approach provides better technology transfer terms, true strategic partnership without political constraints, and compatibility with India’s long-term strategic autonomy goals.
The shift to SAFRAN would achieve several strategic goals, including reducing reliance on an increasingly unreliable American partner, gaining access to cutting-edge French aerospace technology through full technology transfer, strengthening the time-tested France-India strategic partnership, and positioning India for sixth-generation fighter development using SAFRAN’s advanced engine technologies. This transition will also indicate India’s strategic autonomy and refusal to tolerate diplomatic humiliation or conditional alliances.
Prime Minister Modi’s leadership in rejecting Trump’s mediation claims and maintaining India’s sovereign decision-making lays the political groundwork for such a strategic shift. The decision to choose SAFRAN over GE represents not only a shift in defense suppliers, but also a fundamental reorientation toward partnerships based on mutual respect, genuine technology sharing, and long-term strategic convergence rather than transactional relationships subject to political volatility.
The time has come for India to show that strategic partnerships founded on mutual respect and true cooperation will always triumph over ties marked by animosity, stipulations, and diplomatic disdain.
SAFRAN is more than just an alternative to GE; it represents a path to true strategic autonomy and technological sovereignty in crucial defense capabilities.
