The export of about three dozen Eurofighter Typhoon fighter jets to Turkey was halted on April 17, 2025, by the German government, which was led by a caretaker combination of Social Democrats and Greens.
The recent arrest of Turkish opposition leader Ekrem İmamoğlu, which Germany denounced as a politically motivated attack on Turkish democracy, heightened political tensions at the time of this decision. Significantly reversing earlier progress towards the sale, German officials said it would be improper to approve the arms purchase under these conditions.
The veto has far-reaching effects on Turkey’s attempts to modernise its military. After Turkey was kicked out of the U.S.-led F-35 program for purchasing Russian S-400 missile systems, the Eurofighter Typhoon was designed to replace and augment the country’s ageing fleet of F-16 Fighting Falcons.
Developed by a European consortium comprising Germany, the United Kingdom, Italy, and Spain, the Typhoon is a 4.5-generation multi-role fighter with sophisticated capabilities like Mach 2 speed, AESA radar, and a diversified weapons arsenal. It was viewed as essential to preserving Turkey’s air superiority in disputed areas where tensions with Russia and Greece still exist, such as the Black Sea and the Aegean Sea.
Germany’s refusal reveals weaknesses in the Eurofighter consortium in addition to endangering Turkey’s ability to modernise its air force. Germany’s restrictive arms export rules have frequently hindered foreign transactions, as demonstrated in the past with Saudi Arabia and Turkey itself, even if the UK, Spain, and Italy have supported the sale for strategic and economic reasons.
Because the export needs unanimous agreement and Germany’s position puts democratic and human rights considerations ahead of business objectives, the decision has irritated consortium partners.
The coalition is only one aspect of the geopolitical implications. With its important military installations and power projections in Syria, Libya, and the Caucasus, Turkey is a crucial NATO ally on the southern border of the alliance.
A diminished Turkish air force would change the balance of power in the Eastern Mediterranean and restrict NATO’s strategic options in these unstable areas. Greece may obtain a comparative edge by modernising its air force with American F-35s and French Rafale fighters, which could exacerbate tensions in the region.
The veto might strengthen President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s nationalist narrative at home in Turkey by depicting Turkey as a victim of Western double standards and mobilising support in the face of political difficulties. In the meantime, the opposition, echoing Western countries, has exploited İmamoğlu’s imprisonment as a means of denouncing Erdoğan’s democratic regression. Despite being a rebuke, the German veto could actually help Erdoğan’s cause by giving him a foreign enemy to point the finger at.
Turkey has few options going forward. Due to political concerns and NATO compatibility issues, options from China or Russia are improbable, and its own fifth-generation fighter program, the TF-X (Kaan), is years away from operational readiness.
In a crucial security situation, Turkey is exposed due to the Eurofighter’s absence. Losing the Turkish contract would make it more difficult for the Eurofighter consortium to compete with rivals like the French Rafale and the American F-35, which might have an effect on future European defence programs and the sustainability of production facilities.
In addition to expressing serious worries about democratic governance, Germany’s decision to forbid the sale of Eurofighters to Turkey in the midst of the political crisis brought on by İmamoğlu’s arrest also throws off NATO cohesion, military modernisation, and the dynamics of the European defence industry.
With important ramifications for Turkey, NATO, and European defence cooperation, the decision highlights the conflict between managing strategic alliances and conducting moral foreign policy.
