India’s long-standing edge in aerial superiority could be threatened by Pakistan’s imminent purchase of Chinese J-35 stealth fighter fighters, which could fundamentally alter the balance of air power in South Asia. This strategic change has far-reaching effects that go beyond just aircraft counts; it has a profound impact on the regional military balance and forces India to reevaluate its defense priorities.
With its public debut in November 2024, China’s second fifth-generation stealth fighter after the J-20, the Shenyang J-35, proved to be a formidable platform. Designed for multi-role operations, this twin-engine, single-seat supersonic aircraft has sophisticated avionics equipment, such as an electro-optical targeting system, an active electronically scanned array radar, and infrared search-and-track capabilities. According to China’s Global Times, the aircraft is a major technological advancement that operates inside a “stealth and counter-stealth combat framework” intended to achieve air superiority while destroying opponent air defense units.
If Chinese intelligence is to be believed, India’s defense strategists are especially concerned about the J-35’s stealth capabilities. The plane is said to have a radar cross-section of only 0.001 square meters, which is similar to the low observability of the American F-35. Pakistani J-35s might potentially enter Indian airspace unnoticed until they are dangerously close to their targets because of their incredibly small radar signature, which makes them very difficult to detect with traditional radar systems. The aircraft is quicker than the F-35 but not as fast as the F-22, with a top speed of Mach 1.8Beyond stealth, the J-35 is said to have advanced networking capabilities that allow it to use its radar to direct other weapons to engage targets and share target information with other weapon systems, such as surface-to-air missiles. The effectiveness of the aircraft is increased beyond its individual capabilities by this system-of-systems approach, producing a force multiplication effect that may be pivotal in combat situationsThe alleged plan by Pakistan to purchase 40 J-35 stealth fighters—more especially, the FC-31 export version—represents a significant improvement in the capabilities of the Pakistan Air Force. With Pakistani pilots already trained in China, the first deliveries are anticipated to start as early as August 2025. On this schedule, Pakistan would join a select group of states with such cutting-edge capabilities and become one of the first nations outside of China to employ fifth-generation stealth jetThis sale’s financial terms have caused a great deal of controversy since, according to sources, China is selling the aircraft at a steep 50% discount. Chinese public have criticized this pricing plan, asking why their government would support military exports to a financially troubled ally that still owes money for the purchase of earlier aircraft. China’s geopolitical goal of using Pakistan as a display for its military hardware while also applying pressure on India on several fronts is reflected in the lowered priceGiven Pakistan’s current Chinese aircraft stockpile, which consists of 20 J-10C fighters and multiple JF-17 Thunder aircraft, the acquisition is very worrisome. A layered air defense and offensive capacity created by the acquisition of stealth planes might make India’s military planning much more difficult, particularly in situations requiring cross-border operations or defensive reactions to terrorist strikes.
With greater numbers and more sophisticated technology, India has long maintained air superiority over Pakistan. The Indian Air Force has a significant numerical advantage over Pakistan, operating over 513 fighter aircraft as opposed to 328. India’s procurement of 36 French Rafale fighter jets, which was completed with the delivery of the last aircraft in December 2022, has further increased this supremacy. India has gained substantial technological advantages in air-to-air combat and precise attack capabilities thanks to these cutting-edge aircraft, which are more than four generations oldHowever, many of these benefits could be negated by the impending deployment of stealth fighters into Pakistani service. Even with its sophisticated capabilities, the Rafale is still a non-stealth aircraft, making it susceptible to being discovered and intercepted by stealth fighters using the element of surprise. Although strong, India’s current air defense systems are mostly geared to combat conventional aircraft, hence they might not be able to identify and target low-observable targets like the J-35.
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India’s defensive difficulties are made more difficult by the physical characteristics of the India-Pakistan border. Due to the very small distances between military sites and significant population centers, stealth aircraft may enter Indian airspace deeply before being discovered and possibly hit important objectives before efficient defenses could be put in place. The strategic calculation that has guided the dynamics of air power between India and Pakistan for decades has fundamentally changed as a result of this warning time compression.
The possible effect of Pakistan’s J-35 purchase on India’s capacity to manage a conflict with China and Pakistan on two fronts is arguably the most concerning feature of the deal. With manufacturing rates close to 100 aircraft per year, China currently has over 300 J-20 stealth fighters in service. Pakistan has two squadrons of J-35s and Chinese forces may field up to 400 J-20s by 2030, giving them a combined stealth fighter force of over 440 aircraft that they can use to combat India.
India’s air defense systems and strategic planning will be under tremendous strain in this situation. India would have to split its aviation resources between the northern border with China and the western border with Pakistan in a two-front war, which would limit the number of troops available for either theater. Both manpower and material resources would be strained if stealth fighters were present on both fronts, making it more difficult to prioritize targets and requiring India to maintain high alert levels over large geographic areas.
Any future battle may feature coordinated actions intended to overwhelm India’s defensive capabilities, as seen by the coordinated nature of China-Pakistan military cooperation, which has been shown through joint exercises like the recent Warrior-8 counterterrorism drill. Without its own stealth fighter capabilities, India would find it very difficult to effectively counteract tactical scenarios created by Pakistan’s geographic posture and China’s numerical advantage.
Although the timing for these upgrades might not keep up with the deployment of regional stealth fighters, India has been trying to modernize its air defense systems in recognition of these new threats. The nation has installed S-400 missile defense systems that it purchased from Russia; the first regiment has been in service since December 2021, and more systems are being placed along the borders with China and Pakistan. These cutting-edge surface-to-air missile systems have already proven their usefulness during recent border conflicts and can engage targets up to 400 kilometers away.
Under Project Kusha, India is also building its own air defense capabilities with the goal of producing a domestic version of the S-400 system. The system’s operational deployment is still years away, and the prototype is not anticipated for another 12 to 18 months. Similarly, to improve low-altitude coverage, India has been modernizing its radar infrastructure with devices like the Ashwini Low-Level Transportable AESA radars. However, these traditional radar systems might still have trouble successfully detecting stealth aircraft.
Though defense experts doubt that even sophisticated surface-to-air missiles can successfully defeat stealth fighters using the element of surprise and sophisticated electronic warfare capabilities, the integration of these defense systems represents a substantial investment in India’s defensive capabilities. Stealth fighters provide offensive forces the initiative to decide when and where to engage, but defensive systems are reactive by nature. This is still the core challenge.
The Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA) program is India’s main solution to the growing stealth fighter gap. It gained a lot of traction once its execution model was approved in May 2025. The program, which aims to produce a twin-engine, stealth multi-role fighter on par with international fifth-generation aircraft, is India’s most ambitious domestic fighter development project. A framework for industrial engagement has been devised by the Defense Ministry, and 24 businesses are vying for a spot in the development consortium.
For India’s urgent security requirements, the AMCA development timeframe is still worrisome. The maiden flight is planned for 2029, the prototype rollout is projected by 2028–29, and the service introduction is not predicted until 2034–2035. According to this schedule, India will have a crucial capability gap for at least ten years, during which time its adversaries in the region will be able to fly stealth fighters while India will only be able to manufacture conventional aircraft.
The AMCA program faces significant technical obstacles, including the creation of cutting-edge materials, propulsion systems, and avionics that adhere to international standards. The technological complexity of fifth-generation fighters marks a quantum increase in requirements, even though India has substantial experience in aircraft development thanks to programs like the Tejas light combat aircraft. India’s capacity to build improved engines, sophisticated sensor fusion capabilities, and stealth technologies will be critical to the program’s success.
India has looked into a number of different strategies to support its domestic development initiatives in light of the pressing need to close the stealth fighter gap. India has apparently been granted access to the F-35 Lightning-II by the United States, which is a major change from earlier limitations that only allowed the aircraft to be flown by NATO countries and a few allies. This offer has the potential to be revolutionary since it would provide India instant access to tested fifth-generation technology and aid in closing the capability gap until the AMCA is operational.
Building on their long-standing defense partnership, Russia has simultaneously suggested co-producing the Su-57E fighter in India. Although there are still concerns regarding the Su-57’s technological maturity and performance in comparison to other fifth-generation aircraft, this alternative would serve local manufacturing goals while giving India stealth fighter capability. According to former military officials, the Su-57 could be purchased for about $40 million per aircraft, which is less expensive than the Rafale’s $80 million price tag.
As a stopgap, India has also been enhancing its conventional fighter capabilities. According to reports, the Indian Air Force is seeking to purchase 40 more Rafale fighters under a government-to-government contract, increasing the fleet’s size to 76 aircraft. India has also reached agreements for 26 Rafale M naval versions valued at $7.6 billion, indicating its sustained faith in French technology as its own programs advance.
India must respond in a variety of ways, combining short-term investments in improving air defense systems with longer-term commitments to developing its own stealth fighters. The AMCA program is the most long-term solution to India’s needs for stealth fighters, but because of its lengthy development period, short-term solutions are required to fill up capability gaps. To avoid a destabilizing capacity mismatch that might jeopardize regional stability and its own security interests, India must take decisive action, whether through increased air defenses, foreign procurement, or faster domestic growth.
However, the fact that Chinese weapons were utter failures during Operation Sindoor is a bright spot for India and a huge comfort to our military.
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