The recent drone strike by the Indian Army on the headquarters of the United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA) in Myanmar has dealt a serious blow to the purported attempts by Pakistan and China to rekindle the insurgency in Northeast India.
According to intelligence sources, the Pakistan Army and ISI, with covert Chinese assistance, have been actively planning to resurrect insurgency activity in the area by reactivating groups based in Bangladesh and Myanmar since the overthrow of the Sheikh Hasina administration in Dhaka.
The eastern base of ULFA, which has long been used as a shelter and training area for cross-border operations into India, was the target of the drone strike. This move coincides with accusations that China helped ULFA’s exiled leader Paresh Baruah travel from Ruili, which is close to the border between Arunachal Pradesh and Myanmar, to the Xishuangbanna Dai region in Yunnan, China.
Baruah views this area, which is inhabited by Tai/Dai people with ethnic roots to the Ahoms of Assam, as a vital site that could provide access to Mong La in Myanmar, a region that China strictly controls through the NDAA group.
According to reports, China is involved in more than just ensuring safe travel. Baruah has indicated a potential alignment of interests by expressing support for Beijing’s projected 60,000 MW hydroelectric dam project on the Yarlung Tsangpo River, which in Assam becomes the Brahmaputra. In light of Bangladesh’s changing political landscape, the overarching plan seems to entail using cross-border ethnic and insurgency networks to destabilize India’s northeast.
Despite these initiatives, the preparations were derailed by the Indian Army’s precision drone strike, which made it abundantly evident that India is capable and determined to fight cross-border insurgency. The attack highlights India’s determination to eliminate outside backing for insurgent groups, even if the Paresh Baruah-led portion of ULFA is still against peace negotiations, in contrast to the pro-talk party that recently signed a tripartite peace pact.
The situation is still unstable; rebels from the northeast are said to still have hideouts in the Sagaing region of Myanmar. The drone operation, however, highlights the increasing complexity of regional security dynamics and represents a strategic setback for China and Pakistan’s aspirations to utilize insurgency as a weapon against India in the Northeast.
