Israel’s latest military operation against Iran represented an unparalleled escalation in the long-running shadow war over Tehran’s nuclear ambitions, with the targeted assassination of at least 14 Iranian nuclear scientists and professionals.
This operation, which Israeli officials openly acknowledged, targeted chemists, physicists, engineers, and materials and explosives specialists who, according to Israel, were deeply involved in the development, fabrication, and production of nuclear weapons—not just for their academic knowledge, but also for their direct roles in advancing Iran’s weapons program.
According to Joshua Zarka, Israel’s ambassador to France, the assassinations were designed to strike at the heart of Iran’s nuclear capabilities. He stated that the elimination of this group “basically throws back the program by a number of years, quite a number of years,” making it “almost” impossible for Iran to build nuclear weapons from whatever infrastructure and material survived nearly two weeks of Israeli airstrikes and massive U.S. bunker-buster bombings.
Nine of the 14 scientists were reportedly murdered in the initial wave of Israeli attacks on June 13, with the rest being targeted in following strikes.
Despite the gravity of the situation, nuclear specialists and European authorities warn that the impact will likely be brief. Iran’s nuclear program is underpinned by decades of accumulated expertise and a diverse pool of scientific ability, implying that other experts, however less experienced, may someday step in to continue the effort.
According to Mark Fitzpatrick, a former US ambassador specializing in nuclear non-proliferation, “Blueprints will be available, and the next generation of Ph.D. students will be able to figure it out.”
Bombing nuclear plants or murdering people will set it back for some time. Doing both will set it back even farther, but it will be restored.” U.K. Foreign Secretary David Lammy echoed this, stating Parliament that “strikes cannot destroy the knowledge Iran has acquired over several decades, nor any regime ambition to deploy that knowledge to build a nuclear weapon”.
The Israeli effort seems to have a secondary goal: deterrence. By focusing on individuals most thoroughly involved in weaponization, Israel hopes to make potential successors “think twice” about participating in future nuclear weapons development. However, experts warn about the approach’s shortcomings and ethical concernsWhile the loss of important professionals is a significant setback, the fundamental scientific knowledge and motivation remain, and the program can be rebuilt with time. There are also legal and moral concerns concerning the legitimacy of such targeted executions under international humanitarian law, which prohibits the intentional killing of civilians and non-combatants unless they are directly involved in hostilities.
Israel has long been accused of assassinating Iranian nuclear scientists, but this is the first time it has explicitly admitted responsibility for such a large-scale operation. The Iranian government has regularly accused Israel of organizing these strikes to undermine its nuclear program, and the most recent fatalities have heightened regional tensions, with Iran pledging reprisalIsrael’s intentional execution of at least 14 Iranian nuclear scientists is a severe tactical blow to Iran’s nuclear program, intended to stall, disrupt, and prevent future progress toward weaponization. However, analysts agree that military force alone cannot eliminate Iran’s nuclear capabilities or ambitions, and that only a negotiated settlement can address the underlying proliferation risks.
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