Indian planners have two fronts to simultaneously resist pressure. After the last MiG-21 units retire, IAF fighter strength will drop to 29–31 squadrons by October 2025, down from an authorized 42.
By 2037, 10 more Jaguar, Mirage-2000, and MiG-29 squadrons will be retired, potentially reducing the fleet to 25 squadrons if significant replacements are not made. In contrast to the People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF), which currently has 66 squadrons and has started regular J-20 rotations to Tibet, interim stealth fighters offer a temporary buffer while AMCA prototypes develop, preventing a growing gap.
Six J-20s located at Shigatse, only 155 kilometers from the Line of Actual Control, are visible on satellite images, backed by KJ-500 AEW&C coverage. With pilots already undergoing training in China, Pakistan is getting ready to introduce up to 40 Chinese FC-31 (J-35) stealth fighters “within months.” In the event that India lacks stealth capacity, retired Pakistani officers contend that the FC-31 purchase will provide Islamabad a qualitative advantage for 12 to 14 years.
Five test aircraft are planned, with roll-out in 2028–2029 and the first flight in 2029; the prototype development was approved by the Cabinet Committee on Security in March 2024 for ₹15,000 crore (US$1.8 billion). Induction is scheduled for 2034, certification for 2032, and series production for 2035. Private bidders can now compete against HAL for production rights thanks to a new “industry partnership model,” but the change creates organizational uncertainty that could cause delays.
Five test aircraft are planned, with roll-out in 2028–2029 and the first flight in 2029; the prototype development was approved by the Cabinet Committee on Security in March 2024 for ₹15,000 crore (US$1.8 billion). Induction is scheduled for 2034, certification for 2032, and series production for 2035. Private bidders can now compete against HAL for production rights thanks to a new “industry partnership model,” but the change creates organizational uncertainty that could cause delays.
Mach 1.6 top speed, 1,500 nmi ferry range, single-engine, all-aspect stealth multi-role jet with sensor fusion and network-centric design.
Mach 2 dash, about 1,500 km battle radius, 10-ton payload, twin-engine super-manoeuvrable stealth multi-role fighter; export variant offered with “full source-code access” and Indian co-production.
The F-35’s internal weapons bays and inbuilt sensors help it achieve a frontal radar cross-section (RCS) of less than 0.005 m² (≈–40 dBsm). Western analysts doubt the rear-hemisphere signature because of the iris-type nozzle doors that still expose hot engine metal, despite Russian designers claiming that the Su-57’s shape, plasma-screen coating, and L-band radars produce a frontal RCS of 0.01–0.1 m².
The F-35A’s Mission Data Files are fed by its AN/APG-81 AESA, DAS electro-optical sphere, and Link-16 backbone. The aircraft regularly sends track files to USAF E-3, P-8I, and Patriot batteries, which gives India an advantage along the Quad network. Russia provides India with encryption keys and root-level software access for the insertion of native algorithms, while the Su-57E fields N036 Byelka AESA suites spanning nose and cheek arrays in addition to L402 Himalayas EW pods.
The F-35A can’t super-cruise over Mach 1.2 when fully loaded, although it does have a single F135-PW-100 thrust-vectoring turbofan (28,000 lbf dry, 43,000 lbf with afterburner). Su-57 prototypes show Mach 1.3 super-cruise and fly with AL-41F1 twins (31,000 lbf dry each); subsequent “Izdeliye 30” engines promise better thrust-to-weight and a 30% reduction in fuel consumption.
AIM-120C-8, GBU-53/B SDB-II, and SPEAR-3 are possible initial packages, although Israeli-style open mission systems are still unlikely. The F-35 armament suite would depend on the U.S. export release. In comparison, Russia provides the Kh-59MK2 cruise missiles, the R-37M hypersonic AAM (300 km), and the K-77M AESA seeker missile (180 km), along with the potential to incorporate Indian Astra and SAAW ammunition.
The Autonomic Logistics Information System (ALIS), which is sensitive to Delhi’s strategic autonomy narrative, must change into ODIN and be hosted on U.S. servers in order for the F-35 to be maintained. Moscow promised source code for Indian predictive-maintenance modules, and the Su-57E would follow Russia’s MRO blueprint when it combined with HAL’s Su-30 line at Nashik.
Indian industry is restricted to line-replaceable-unit swaps because Lockheed Martin’s typical F-35 foreign military sale prohibits depot-level electronics maintenance outside of authorized hubs. On the other hand, ROSTEC’s June 2025 bid includes authority to install indigenous GaN AESA radars, 60% Indian content, and licensed production at HAL Nashik. According to ROSTEC, a Made-in-India Su-57 might cost at least $10 million less per jet than the F-35A.
India’s decision to acquire interim fifth-generation fighters is a strategic pivot that affects long-term fiscal flexibility, industrial autonomy, and deterrence credibility. A Su-57E co-production line has geopolitical baggage in the face of sanctions pressure, but also promises deeper technology absorption at reduced unit cost, in line with Make-in-India imperatives.
The IAF runs the risk of being tied to opaque sustainment software and having its S-400 doctrine constrained by the F-35A, despite its unparalleled networked warfare capabilities and political clout inside the Quad. The acquisition clock is running faster than ever before, with squadron strength approaching 29 and the AMCA still ten years away. Long into the 2050s, Delhi’s decision in 2025 will have an impact on the subcontinent’s skies.
In order to support an increasingly depleted fighter inventory until the domestic Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA) eventually joins the fleet in the mid-2030s, India’s cabinet must make a snap decision regarding the importation of two to three squadrons of foreign fifth-generation combat aircraft, or about 40–60 aircraft, according to an ANI report.
In order to support an increasingly depleted fighter inventory until the domestic Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA) eventually joins the fleet in the mid-2030s, India’s cabinet must make a snap decision regarding the importation of two to three squadrons of foreign fifth-generation combat aircraft, or about 40–60 aircraft, according to an ANI report.
